Savitri Era of those who adore, Om Sri Aurobindo and The Mother.

Thursday, March 08, 2012

Less than 4 percentage points swing in UP

It has been argued that the FPTP (First Past the Post) system has run its course in India and that it is time that the country adopted PR systems that would allow for representation of minorities and smaller parties in the legislatures. However, proponents of the FPTP system argue that PR is a recipe for instability as exemplified by the current political deadlock in Nepal, a similar socially stratified country that has adopted the PR system. It is also argued that the FPTP system has not discouraged the growth of smaller parties as seen in the gradual regionalisation and federalisation of India’s polity. And that affirmative action in the form of reservation of seats for marginalised groups such as the scheduled castes and tribes as also the need to obtain support from diverse sections of the population has ensured desirable outcomes in terms of representation, without sacrificing too much on inherent stability as compared to PR systems.
But as UP shows, there are glaring cases of skewed verdicts in the FPTP system. UP has the largest state assembly and it sends the largest number of representatives to Parliament. If the electoral trends in 2007 and 2012 are repeated regularly and the larger parties remain oriented in their social outlook to a limited set of castes and communities, the clamour for a shift to the PR system will only grow. (Srinivasan Ramani is Senior Assistant Editor, Economic and Political Weekly.)

BJP posed tough challenge to two main contenders Times of India Ashish Tripathi, TNN Mar 12, 2012
The BJP won 47 seats with a vote share of 15%, down from 16.97% in 2007, came second at 55, third at 110 and fourth at 123… The BJP lost 13 seats with less than 5000 margin, of which three were lost by a margin less than 500 votes. The BJP was in direct contest with SP at 43 places, of which it won 16, and with BSP at 30 seats, of which party won 13... 
In fact, a shift of just 3% floating votes towards the SP decided the results in 106 assembly constituencies… The 3% vote swing against BSP is of floating votes comprising all castes and communities. These floating votes went to SP, resulting in 3% swing in its favour. The swing mostly has been in the Muslim votes. The Muslims largely voted for BSP in 2007 and Congress in 2009 but this time they are back with SP.  

Election results 2012: Regime change doesn't spell end of Rahul ... Economic Times - Mar 7, 2012, 02.08AM IST By Yogendra Yadav
We rush to conclude that everything the Congress tried in UP was a mistake and that it has no future. We are eager to find nothing short of a tectonic shift in Indian politics in this round of assembly elections.
Learning from cricket commentary would invite us to look at the small print behind the big banner headlines. We would notice that all the big verdicts were results of a very small shift in votes. Even Uttar Pradesh witnessed only about 4 percentage points swing away from Mayawati.

Lesson of the UP polls - To win in Uttar Pradesh, a party needs a reliable core vote MUKUL KESAVAN Calcutta Telegraph Thursday , March 8 , 2012 The Brahmins, especially, are political tourists. 
Yogendra Yadav suggested that the post-poll survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies showed that the categories pundits used to understand the politics of UP had been left behind by electoral reality. The reality was that people didn’t vote according to their identities to the same extent as they had done before. The survey’s most radical claim was that the Jatav rock on which the BSP was built had split, with a fifth of that vote going to the old enemy, the Samajwadi Party. Shekhar Gupta in The Indian Express declared that elections in contemporary India were becoming more meritocratic, that pandering to caste and community identities (as the Congress and the BJP had tried to do) didn’t pay off any more.

Party
 Sahibabad
 Ghaziabad
 Noida
 Remarks [TNM55]
BSP
 124
 64
 50
 Wins 2 seats
BJP
 100
 52
 77
 Wins 1 seat
Congress
 51
 37
 25
 3rd in 2 seats
SP
 36
 17
 42
 3rd in 1 seat

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