China vs India: The Match of the Century

The epic 21st-century contest between the Chinese dragon and the Indian tiger is about ideas as much as economies. Date Posted on Global Envision: June 12, 2006

Which huge Asian country is set to become a dominant global economic force powered by the world's largest population? If you said China, you may yet be proved wrong. The answer is just as likely to be India.

• China is firmly on the road to having the world's second-biggest population. Its current number-one ranking will be overtaken by India by around 2030 - partly as a result of the demographic consequences of China's "one-child policy". The rise in south Asia's population - tracked by the United Nations Population Division - is likely to see India's neighbour Pakistan become the fourth-most-populous country on the planet by 2050. By then, India is projected to have 1,593 million people to China's 1,392 million.
• But even if it is conceded that India may become more populous than China, many argue that it will never be richer (the recent vagaries of the dispute can be traced in the contrast between two stories in the Economist: "China v India: A Tiger, Falling Behind a Dragon" [June 2003] and "The Tiger in Front" [March 2005])...

It is impossible to referee this particular prize-fight; the variables are too many and too diverse. A number of commentators say India's rate of economic growth will overtake China's as early as 2008; at least an equal number say China's will remain ahead indefinitely. Although I live in China, I cannot help but notice one intriguing factor: there's a clear link between creativity and societal freedom. India has both, in large measure; China has neither. Contributed by Nury Vittachi, a journalist and author based in China. Reprinted with permission from openDemocracy. To read another Global Envision article about China vs. India, see The Indian Tortoise and the Chinese Hare. Back More articles