Why the #BJP Lost #BiharPolls | http://indiafacts.co.in/why-the-bjp-lost-bihar/ … via @IndiaFactsOrg
Modi is marginally supported, but not really accepted by the RSS and the BJP which are still following the Brahmo Samaj and crypto-Gandhian vision of India in which the Saint or the Monastic or the semi-Ascetic order becomes part of Governance.
For them, a Vasishtha or a Vishvamitra asking a Rama to deal with adharma is not enough, but many mini-Parashuramas are needed to displace the existing rulers. This should also explain the bitter and almost pathetic rebellion of an intellectual like Arun Shourie who resents the entry of several semi-Parashuramas.
BJP lost Bihar because former Lohiaites allied with their former foremost enemy - Nehru Cong - and defeated Modi-led BJP. Same would have been the result in VS elections in Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana if there was no 3-way split. And, if one looks at vote share %, BJP's performance in Assam, Jharkhand, Bihar, AP, Maharashtra, UP, Delhi, Haryana and J&K would have been much less sterling in LS elections as well if opposition had combined, a probability much higher now post-Bihar environment than it was in 2014.
Was the caste the factor for such vote distribution in all those states? If so, why BJP is able to stand on its own and win in HP, UK, Raj, MP, Guj, Goa & CS (all mostly 2-party states with non-significant presence of certain vote banks) despite different caste composition in these states?
I have not seen any credible analysis from any expert on this phenomenon. It will be useful to look at these aspects instead of tilting at imaginary windmills.
Dipankar Gupta on what the Bihar elections mean for caste politics
First, based on numbers alone, no caste can win an election on its strength alone. So even in constituencies that are supposed to be dominated by the Yadavs for instance, the percentage (of Yadavs in the population of that constituency) would be around 15 per cent at the most. Again, only 15 per cent of Bihar's population comprises Yadavs. So if 25 per cent of Bihar's MLAs are Yadavs, the remaining 75 per cent are non-Yadavs. Several Yadavs fought on Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) tickets, others on Mahagathbandhan tickets. Some won, some lost. The point is, caste alone does not win an election. But we find that the Other Backward Classes (OBC), upper castes and Dalits got together, leaving out some sections of extremely backward classes, to bring about this verdict. Incidentally, there is nothing in the caste order that promotes such coalescence.
It is an important sociological point that we define caste system in terms of mutual repulsion. So if they come together, it can't be because of caste; it must be something else. During the Mandal Commission agitation, the OBCs came together, regardless of their differences, because they saw the promise of a future where their children, who belonged to agrarian or lower middle class backgrounds, would have a foothold in colleges and government jobs. So Jats, Gujjars, Ahirs, Kurmis, Yadavs etc got together because of the promise of jobs and educational opportunities in urban areas. We saw that largely, the Khuswahas did not vote for the Yadavs and the Scheduled Castes did not align with the Paswans. So if you were to look at caste logic alone, it would not work. When they come together it's not because of caste affinity, but external factors.
It's our very Orientalist approach, and it's unfortunate, that we think people vote only along primordial caste loyalties and lines, and no other considerations. [...] What brings Ahirs, Kurmis, Koeris etc together? The agglutinative factor is not caste sympathies but an issue like reservation, or factors like safety in Bihar or women's empowerment through the bicycles for girls scheme. Many people have told me about Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's record in building roads and bridges and the change it has brought into their lives. [...] The Mandal agitation had brought these classes together on the basis of reservation. Kumar brought people together on the basis of his development card.